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Monday, March 1, 2010

The Final Countdown: Part 1 of 5

Boston College and New Hampshire Battle it Out For Hockey East Supremacy

For fans of teams other than the Eagles and Wildcats, this series may not offer a whole lot of drama, but it is important for the landscape of Hockey East going into the postseason.  He who wins the regular season crown earns important momentum going into the playoffs, especially when this happens on the final weekend of the season.

The Wildcats have excelled in Conference play this season, losing just five games to Hockey East foes.  However it has been their games outside of New England that have raised some concern in Durham.

On the other hand, BC has chugged along at a solid rate all season long, dropping just two non-conference games.  Despite a three game losing streak in the Denver Cup and at Fenway Park, there hasn't been a truly bad stretch for the Eagles.  When they get knocked around, they get back up.  And recently, they have added a superior scoring touch to their two-headed monster in net.

I Hate Baldwin
With two head to head games to go, UNH leads BC by just three points in the standings.  A three point weekend or a sweep for the Eagles earns them the Hockey East crown.  Anything less, and the regular season honors go to the Cats.
As if these top dogs aren't evenly matched enough, their only head to head game this year only helps to prove that point.  Back in November, 65 minutes wasn't enough to settle the score, and the game ended in a 4-4 tie.  But November is ancient history.

Boston College comes into the final weekend hot, having won 3 in a row, 4 of 5, and 8 of 10.  Over the past three games they have thumped their opponents by a count of 16-2, and they seem to have settled on  fantastic freshman Parker Milner as their starter.

Milner Has Played His Way Into A Job

Milner has stolen the job from Junior John Muse, who has actually played great in goal this year.  Unfortunately for Muse, Milner has been better than great.  Milner has an unbelievable 2.04 GAA to go with his .915 save percentage on the way to a 9-2-0 record.  At this point, it'd be tough for Jerry York to justify sitting him down.

The Eagles have also been buoyed by a great coaching move by Jerry York on February 1.  York decided to put his three best offensive players together on a line, and they responded in a big way.

Since then, Brian Gibbons has 14 points, Joe Whitney has 9 and Cam Atkinson has 13.  The big three happen to have played every single game this season for the Eagles, and are the top three in scoring on the team.

The story for New Hampshire has been its ability to figure out almost everyone in Hockey East.  If you take out the somewhat flukey two game sweep at the hands of Maine, UNH has gone 14-2-4 going back to November.  They have paced the Hockey East clusterfuck for the majority of this season, and seemed to be a sure winner of the regular season crown until the Eagles emerged from the mess in the last month.

The Wildcats will surge into the postseason on the stick of a legitimate Hobey Baker candidate in Bobby Butler, who has 24 goals and 21 assists on the season, good for sixth in the nation in scoring.

Hobey Butler!

The UNH co-captain leads a high powered offense that scores 3.75 goals per Hockey East game.  

Brian Foster has been good enough in goal for UNH considering the fact that he has started all but one game for UNH.  His 3.07 GAA and .905 save percentage have been good enough for a 15-10-6 record this season.

This should be a very interesting home and home series, considering neither team has conceded much of anything on home ice this season.  BC is 11-2-0 at Conte Shithole while UNH is 9-2-4 at The Whit.  

Before we get to the predictions, let's get a team vs team comparison:

OVERALL RECORD
BC -- 20-10-2   UNH -- 16-10-6

POWER PLAY
BC -- 21.4%   UNH -- 16.7%

PENALTY KILL
BC -- 86.3%   UNH -- 80.0%

GOALS/GAME
BC -- 3.75   UNH -- 3.47

GOALS ALLOWED / GAME 
BC -- 2.41   UNH -- 3.19


So pretty much every statistical category indicates that I should pick Boston College to sweep the weekend and find a way to knock UNH off in the final weekend of play.  It's the logical thing to say.  But it's not what I'm going to say.

My prediction is that each team will eek one out at home, each taking one goal victories, allowing the Wildcats to end the regular season on top of the standings with the Hockey East crown in hand.

Besides, Fuck BC.

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