Everything can change in an instant in this year's Hockey East. Those in home-ice position now may be on the outside looking in tomorrow. Likewise, those hanging on for dear life in the cellar could make a run at the four seed.
This weekend, UML, which is suddenly in the top half of the playoff picture, and UVM, which has recovered from an absolutely brutal string of bad luck in the second half, will meet up at Tsongas for a two-game set. Each team controls their own destiny in terms of making the tournament, but neither has a rock-solid grip on the second season.
So what will happen when Riverclowns and Catamounts collide?
The playoff push breeds desperation, and sometimes, desperation breeds success. It appears that both UVM and UML have found a way to dig deep and claw their way toward the second season.Despite dealing with a slew of issues over the past couple of months, the Catamounts have bounced back in a big way. They earned just one point in their weekend series with UNH two weeks ago, but the points total was the only disappointing thing about that weekend. Vermont ramped up its level of play to match that of the first place Wildcats, and they pushed them to OT on consecutive nights. They built on the momentum of that weekend by sweeping the Terriers last week to hop back in the conversation.
It hasnt been easy for Vermont to get back here. Along with releasing offensive star Justin Milo, UVM has suffered a rash of injuries to impact players down the stretch.
Leading scorer Brayden Irwin has been a big reason why UVM has been able to stay alive, putting up an other-worldly 9 points in the past 4 games. Captain Brian Roloff has also been an important part of steadying the ship for the Cats on and off the ice, as he contributed to the 7-3 romp over BU last Friday with a 3 point night.
Oh Captain, My Captain
Now, the Catamounts need to continue their success to stay on top of the Minutemen in the standings, who are just two slim points behind them in the standings.
But try this on for size. On the eve of the final weekend of Hockey East play, with the Catamounts desperately fighting to be 8th best in Hockey East, they are also fighting to be 12th best in the nation. Vermont is tied for #12 in the most recently updated PairWise Rankings. That means that UVM is right on the cusp of being an at large bid in the NCAA tournament. In fact, they're just percentage points behind HE leading UNH in the PairWise.
But UML can put an end to all of this by squashing UVM this weekend. Lowell's spot is not locked up by any means at all, but it's a bit more secure than Vermont's. After a three point weekend against Providence, Lowell is in sole possession of the 4th seed, and thus the final home ice spot in Hockey East.
The Riverhawks have been streaky in the second half, going on runs of two losses, two wins, three losses, one win, two losses, two wins and a tie to get to this point. That's not exactly inspiring a ton of confidence.
Lowell has got a tremendous year from Carter Clowner Hutton (2.12 GAA, .927 SV %) to keep them afloat. Lowell's strength all season long has been keeping their opponents off the board, allowing just 2.44 goals per game, second best in the Conference. They're also disciplined, as only UNH has taken fewer penalty minutes per game than UML.
CLOWN!
They also have a 31 point scorer in Kory Falite, and could have another member of the 30 point club if Scott Campbell registers a point this weekend.
Both of these vital games will be played at Lowell. Let's take a look at the team comparisons to see who has the edge.
OVERALL RECORD
UVM: 15-11-6 UML: 17-14-3
GOALS / GAME
UVM: 3.19 UML: 3.06
GOALS ALLOWED / GAME
UVM: 2.91 UML: 2.44
POWER PLAY
UVM: 18.7% UML: 20.3%
PENALTY KILL
UVM: 80.1% UML: 81.8%
When it comes down to it, I have to believe that this series will come down to who is more desperate. Vermont is on the cusp of salvaging what could have been a disastrous season. If they win this weekend and make the playoffs, they still have a shot at an at-large bid, as well as making a run at Hockey East with momentum on their side. But if they lose, the legacy of this season at UVM will be one of upheaval and failure.
UML can lose out this weekend, and they will most likely still make the playoffs. The Riverhawks have also shown zero ability to stay consistent in the new year. I doubt their ability to hold down the Catamounts, even if it is on home ice.
THE PICK: UVM wins the weekend by sweeping the Riverhawks out of their own building to make the playoffs and bolster their NCAA Tourney resume. They do it by forcing the Riverhawks into an offensive battle, and UML can't quite keep up.
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